The lagging-indicator problem
Cancellation is a lagging indicator. By the time a member clicks “cancel,” they’ve already made the decision — usually weeks ago. The leading indicators (drop in attendance, ignored coach messages, payment-card aging, missed milestones) are what you actually need to watch. The churn-prediction module aggregates those into one number.
The risk score
Every member gets a churn-risk score updated daily, based on:
- Attendance trend — last 30 days vs. their personal baseline.
- Payment health — declined charges, card-on-file age, recent dunning events.
- Engagement age — days since their last coach interaction (text, email, in-person).
- Tenure-adjusted weighting — a 60-day member is statistically more likely to churn than a 2-year member, so the score weights signals differently.
- Cohort comparison — how the member’s pattern compares to others in their tier / sign-up cohort.
Scores roll up into three tiers:
| Risk tier | Score | What fires |
|---|---|---|
| Healthy | 0–35 | Normal flows — no special handling |
| At-risk | 36–65 | Retention nudge + coach ping |
| Critical | 66–100 | Owner notification + manual save-attempt protocol |
The save-attempt protocol
When a member tips into the critical band, the system fires a 4-step recovery:
- Owner notification (Slack or email) with the score, the contributing signals, and a one-line context.
- Personal SMS from a coach — non-templated, just human reach-out.
- An offer — a free PT session, a guest-pass for a friend, a discounted month — calibrated to the member’s tenure and tier.
- A 1-on-1 conversation with the owner or lead coach, scheduled via a quick calendar pick.
About 30% of critical-tier members are recovered with this protocol. That’s the difference between a 5%/month churn rate and a 3.5%/month churn rate — over a year, that’s 18 retained members on a 100-member studio.
Customization
The scoring weights are tuned during your 10-hour onboarding to match your studio type. A daily CrossFit box weights attendance more heavily; a 1x/week yoga drop-in studio leans on payment + engagement signals.